Below is given the Table of Contents of the
Issues listed above:
Volume 58. No 3. October-December 2010
ARTICLES / 1
The Divisia Monetary Indices as
Leading Indicators of Inflation M. Ramachandran, Rajib Das and
Binod B. Bhoi
This study constructed three
alternative measures of Divisia
monetary aggregates corresponding to
two official measures of monetary
aggregates, M2 and M3, and one
liquidity measure, L1 and evaluated
their role as indicators of
inflation vis-à-vis their simple sum
counterparts. The empirical results
obtained from correlation analysis,
fit of the nearest neighbourhood
regression as well as the vector
error correction model unambiguously
established the superiority of
Divisia monetary aggregates over
their simple sum counterparts as
predictor of both headline and core
inflation. The results were further
corroborated by evidence from
forecast error variance
decomposition which showed the
growth rates of Divisia monetary
aggregates as exogeneous sequence
and the impulse response functions
which showed stronger response of
inflation to shocks in growth rates
of Divisia monetary aggregates.
Hence, the study suggests that the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can
closely observe the growth rates of
Divisia monetary aggregates to have
a better understanding of future
inflationary pressure built-up
within its multiple indicator
approach. This, however, does not
mean that the RBI can dispense the
use of official measures of monetary
aggregates. Simple sum aggregate can
serve as an accounting stock.
M. Ramachandran Professor of Economics,
Department of Economics, Pondicherry
University, Pondicherry.
E-mail:
ramch2003@yahoo.co.in Rajib Das, Director Department of Economic and
Policy Research, Reserve Bank of
India.
E-mail:
rajibdas@rbi.org.in Binod B. Bhoi Assistant Adviser, Department of
Economic and Policy Research,
Reserve Bank of India.
E-mail:
binodbbhoi@rbi.org.in
Note: This is a reproduction of
the original DRG Study No.36
published by the RBI in June 2010.
Reproduced here for the benefit of
our readers, with the permission of
RBI.
ARTICLES
/ 2
International Experience with Fuel
Ethanol Lessons for India Pradeep Agrawal and Inder Sekhar
Yadav
The rapid increase in petrol prices
in 2006-2008 demonstrated the
vulnerability of oil importing
countries like India to sharp
increases in oil prices and the need
to develop alternative and renewable
sources of energy. Ethanol has been
one promising option and its
production around the world has
expanded rapidly during the last
decade. USA, Brazil, China and India
are the top four ethanol producing
countries in the world. This paper
reviews the experience of these four
countries with the production and
use of ethanol as a fuel substitute
and examines the possibility of
significantly increasing its use in
India. While Brazil has been able to
use ethanol as a fuel substitute on
a large scale, China experienced
rapid increase in food prices when
it tried to do the same. India can
produce some ethanol from waste
products like molasses, but given
the limited land availability in
India and the likely rapid increase
in demand for food in the near
future due to rising incomes, it may
be difficult to divert significant
amounts of food crops for ethanol
production in India. Producing
ethanol from cellulose (waste
biomass) could become an important
option in the future if the
technology can be made commercially
viable. Thus, the Indian government
should support research towards this
end.
Pradeep Agrawal
RBI Chair Professor of Economics,
Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi.
E-mail:
pradeep@ieg.ernet.in Inder Sekhar Yadav
Assistant Professor, Dept. of
Finance, India Business School,
Hyderabad.
E-mail:
indersekharyadav@gmail.com
ARTICLES / 3
Fiscal Scenario of the Union
Government in India Anil Kumar Jain
For a sustainable fiscal policy it
is essential that fiscal
consolidation process is not only
facilitated but it is also
strengthened by concerted efforts to
boost revenue flows to meet the
growing expenditure requirements. By
1990, the situation on the fiscal
front had become precarious and all
deficit indicators started showing
increasing trend. The adoption of
various fiscal measures resulted in
reducing the deficit ratios to GDP
in respect of fiscal deficit,
revenue deficit and primary deficit.
However, the real picture is much
less rosy on account of adoption of
two important methods of window
dressing. First, since 2000-01,
gross fiscal deficit (GFD) figures
are shown as net of states’ share in
small savings. This has resulted in
decline in absolute figures, as also
deficit ratios. Second, off-budget
liabilities are not shown in the
budget and these reduce the quantum
of deficit. There is an urgent need
for fiscal correction. Significant
fiscal improvements will hinge
increasingly on improvements in
revenue collections. There is need
to restructure the Indian tax system
so as to ensure elasticity of the
tax system and achieve increasing
share of direct taxes in total tax
revenue. The ultimate success would,
however, depend upon strong
political will and concerted and
committed political leadership.
Anil Kumar Jain
Professor of Economics and Dean,
Faculty of Social Sciences,
Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi.
E-mail:
jainbhu@gmail.com
ARTICLES
/ 4
Determinants of Acquisition Evidence
for India Paramjeet Kaur
Envisaging the effects that mergers
and acquisitions (M&As) can have on
the economic health of a nation, the
paper analyses some key issues, ‘why
some firms acquire’ and ‘why some
get acquired’ with special reference
to the Drugs and Pharmaceutical
Industry during 1993-94 to 2002-03.
Making use of firm-specific
variables; profitability, market
share, capital structure, age of the
firm, results show that efficiency
of firm and market share play a
positive, while high leverage has
negative role in explaining the
probability of firms adopting
mergers as their growth strategy.
The young firms, expectedly more
aggressive and innovative, have
greater chances of acquiring.
Concerning firms getting acquired,
results show that better performing
and high-leveraged firms have
greater likelihood of becoming
merger targets. The paper points to
the possibility of obtaining
financial synergies that acquiring
firms could foresee in making these
acquisitions. The assertion that
size matters more than efficiency in
M&As, is not supported. The paper
argues for M&As to evolve.
Dr. Paramjeet Kaur,
Reader in Economics, Sri Guru Gobind
Singh College of Commerce,
University of Delhi, India.
E-mail:
paramsps42@yahoo.co.in
ARTICLES
/ 5
Prof. A.K. Dasgupta’s
Contributions to Economics A Study Purba Chattopadhyay
Prof. Amiya Kumar Dasgupta
(1903-1992) was one of the greatest
economists of his time with his
multifaceted contributions in varied
fields related to the economics and
the economy itself. Dasgupta’s field
of analysis was vast, ranging from
theory of value, distribution,
growth, money, international trade
to public finance, etc. His huge
volume of published work deal with
economic planning, wage policy,
austerity, black market, inflation,
Gandhian economics, Marshallian
Theory, Keynesian economics, Marxian
thought so on and so forth. His
contributions to theoretical
economics and contemporary critical
issues pertaining to the Indian
economy were pioneering effort in
his time as well as seem relevant
even today. Further, Dasgupta’s
tryst as a policymaker and economic
advisor makes his works even more
pertinent. His analyses were unique
translating ground realities to pure
theories. The aim of the present
paper is to have a brief overview of
his works focussing on his major
contributions to the discipline of
economics. The paper tries to look
into the various aspects of his
contributions to economics in form
of a teacher, academician,
policymaker and social philosopher.
Purba Chattopadhyay, Lecturer in
Economics, Gobardanga Hindu College,
West Bengal.
E-mail:
poorvaganguly@yahoo.co.in
ARTICLES
/ 6
Empirical Evidence on Determinants
and Extents of Alcoholism S.N. Nayanatara, D.R. Myageri and
B. Prasanna Kumar
This paper discusses the nature,
determinants and extent of
alcoholism with its burden on the
society. The logit and multi-logit
models are used for the data
analysis based on a qualitative
survey method. Findings suggest that
standard of living index and
education will help to reduce
alcoholism and its burden in the
society irrespective of productive
age, targeted areas, social groups,
and gender classifications. Policies
should be targeted on these factors
to have a rational and
welfare-oriented society.
S.N. Nayanatara,
Associate Professor, Centre for
Multi-disciplinary Development
Research, Dharwad.
E-mail:
nsnayanatara@yahoo.com
D.R. Myageri,
Research Scholar, Centre for
Multi-disciplinary Development
Research, Dharwad.
E-mail:
dastageer_s@indiatimes.com
B. Prasannakaumar,
Assistant Professor, Centre for
Multi-disciplinary Development
Research, Dharwad.
E-mail:
barikpk@yahoo.com
ARTICLES
/ 7
Regional Trade Agreements and
Competition Policy Some Lessons for
India Augustine Peter
Competition policy has emerged as a
major element in the economic policy
set of countries, and with
increasing globalisation the
rationale of incorporating
competition rules in regional as
well as multilateral trade
agreements is being more and more
recognised. India has recently
joined the RTA bandwagon and a
number of regional trade/free trade
agreements have either been
concluded or are under various
stages of negotiation. Even though
under the multilateral process the
proposal for a separate competition
policy agreement has been taken off
the Doha agenda, there is increasing
demand from countries like the US,
EU, Japan and South Korea for
inclusion of competition related
provisions (CRPs) in RTAs.
Therefore, India which is
negotiating comprehensive free trade
agreements with most of these
countries or will have to review in
the future the agreements already
signed, will have to give serious
thought to a possible strategy. The
article reviews the nature of CRPs
in RTAs already in force globally
and those which had been proposed at
the multilateral level. RTAs with
deep integration tend to have more
detailed provisions related to
competition, though dispute
settlement provisions are rare.
India needs to consider including
CRPs, including capacity building,
at the SAFTA level and also in other
comprehensive agreements of deep
integration nature where investment
is also part of the agreement.
Cooperation of a deep level,
including case based cooperation and
sharing of confidential business
information, requires capacity
building at the Competition
Commission of India. Even though
anti-dumping rules tend to frustrate
competition policy objectives, India
needs to cautiously move as regards
elimination of anti-dumping as part
of RTAs. However, there is need to
review the way anti-dumping rules
are implemented so as to ensure that
consumer harm is minimised while
ensuring fair play for domestic
producers.
Augustine Peter is a
government official belonging to IES
(1982).
E-mail:
paugustine@nic.in.
COMMUNICATION FOR DEBATE & RESEARCH
/ 1
An Empirical Investigation of
Kaldor’s Growth Laws Evidence from
the Mediterranean Region
Constantinos Alexiou and Persefoni
Tsaliki
This study empirically evaluates the
Kaldorian contention i.e.,
‘manufacturing is the engine of
growth’. The Kaldorian growth laws
are subjected to econometric testing
and the generated evidence supports
the Kaldorian postulates. This
suggests that resources have to be
mobilised towards manufacturing
should the economies in the
scrutinised region attain a higher
level of economic growth and
development. For the econometric
investigation a Time-Series-Cross-
Section (TSCS) methodology has been
applied to five Mediterranean
countries, over the period 1975 to
2006.
Constantinos Alexiou,
Assistant Professor, Department of
Urban-Regional Planning and
Development Engineering, Polytechnic
School, Aristotle University,
Greece.
E-mail:
alexio07@otenet.gr
Persefoni Tsaliki,
Assistant Professor, Department of
Economics, Aristotle University,
Greece.
E-mail:
ptsaliki@econ.auth.gr
COMMUNICATION FOR DEBATE & RESEARCH
/ 2
Impact of Globalisation on
Rural Employment (1983-2008) Roli Misra
The process of globalisation and
prospects for rural employment has
been a subject matter which has been
extensively discussed in literature.
A noticeable shift from farm to
non-farm employment has taken place
in the post globalise era. This
paper attempts to analyse the trend
in employment in the rural sector on
one hand and on the other hand tries
to establish a linkage between
impact on education on workforce
participation rate in a specific age
group.
Roli Misra,
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, DBS College, Kanpur.
E-mail:
roli219@gmail.com
REVIEW ARTICLE / 1
Economic Growth in India History and
Prospect
(Author: Pulapre Balakrishnan;
pp.352; August 2010; Oxford
University Press)
Reviewed by Professor C.H.
Hanumantha Rao,
Centre for Economic
and Social Studies,
Hyderabad
REVIEW ARTICLE / 2
Growth, Distribution and Public
Policy A Study of West Bengal
(Author: Biswajit Chatterjee, pp.
825, Price: Rs.2400, Deep & Deep
Publications)
Reviewed by Dr.Arunkumar R. Kulkarni,
Assistant Professor, Centre for
Multi-Disciplinary Development
Research (CMDR),
Dharwad (Karnataka)
REVIEW ARTICLE / 3
Economic Reforms and Small Scale
Industries
(Author: M. Soundarapandian, Concept
Publishing Company, 2009)
Reviewed by Dr. Dalip Kumar,
National Council of Applied Economic
Research, New Delhi